Morning Tape: Equities steady as traders fade rate-cut bets

**The setup** U.S. equity futures are little changed in the early tape after a quiet Asia session. S&P 500 futures sit within four points of fair value while Nasdaq 100 futures lag by 0.1% as megacap profit-taking continues for a third day. Europe opened mixed; the Stoxx 600 is up 0.2% led by banks after BNP and ING beat on net interest income. **Rates & FX** The rates complex is doing the heavy lifting. Two-year yields are up four basis points to 4.81% and the curve has bear-flattened nine bps this week as traders cut December rate-cut odds to 58% from 74% Monday. The dollar index is firmer for a fourth straight session, with USD/JPY pressing 154.20 and EUR/USD slipping to 1.0712. **Commodities** Brent is holding $84 a barrel after OPEC+ signalled it will keep voluntary cuts in place through Q3. Gold is consolidating at $2,318 — buyers continue to step in on every dip toward the 50-day moving average. **What to watch** - 8:30 ET: Initial jobless claims (cons. 215k) - 10:00 ET: ISM Services (cons. 52.0) - Earnings after the bell: Apple, Amgen, Coinbase **The trade desk view** Positioning is light into payrolls and the path of least resistance is sideways. A hot services print would likely push the 10-year above 4.40% and put the 5,150 level back in play for the S&P. A miss does the opposite — and probably revives the small-cap chase that started Tuesday. *— Marcus Vale, Markets Desk*